Dwight D. Eisenhower once remarked that the D-Day landings were won by having “better meteorologists than the Germans.” Sixty-four years on, that basic insight has not changed. Accurate space weather forecasting is essential for securing satellite constellations and ground-based radar. Obscure work on atmospheric turbulence feeds advancements in military lasers, which are needed to defeat the future drone threat. Despite the many strides made toward an all-weather force, there remains an urgent military need to understand, predict, and mitigate weather effects—especially for air and missile defense.
Recent cuts to civilian weather agencies could put this source of strategic advantage at risk. The United States’ fusion of civil and military weather research disproportionately benefits the missile defense enterprise, with National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and NASA research indirectly supporting hypersonic research and development, satellite deployment, and other modernization priorities. For Golden Dome and other efforts to succeed, it is worth taking an informed second look.
Accelerating Space Priorities
Civil weather science has been crucial for advancing defense space priorities. Tracking hypersonic missiles from space is no small feat. Their infrared signatures are dim and can be affected by glints and reflections in clouds, changes in atmospheric transmission, and other factors. NOAA research into these effects has been key to making hypersonic detection possible. Indeed, NOAA weather satellite programs like GOES-R directly developed the technologies used in counter-hypersonic satellites like the Hypersonic and Ballistic Tracking Space Sensor (HBTSS). The same factories that build weather satellites build missile tracking satellites. The same scientific base used to characterize wildfires and cloud patterns contributes directly to defeating the deadliest missiles.
Investments in understanding space weather—geomagnetic storms, solar flares, and other effects—are also important for ensuring that U.S. space assets survive. Routine fluctuations in atmospheric and solar activity can cut the orbital lifespans of satellite constellations by tenfold or more. The effects of unexpected radiation spikes can damage satellite structures and electronics. To maintain and deploy space-based missile defense assets, the capacity to track space weather must expand.
The need for more satellites in other missions, such as for commercial and military communications and sensing, will only accelerate these trends. In February 2022, 38 out of 49 Starlink satellites deorbited shortly after launch due to amplified neutral mass density levels—an interaction of solar activity and atmospheric drag. This activity is expected to get worse over the next couple of years.
NOAA’s and NASA’s consultation, research, and predictive modeling have been essential for mitigating these problems. NOAA after-action studies following the 2022 incident helped SpaceX adjust its satellite propagation algorithms, reducing the risk of another loss. Meanwhile, NOAA, NASA, and Air Force models like JBH09 have helped satellite operators adjust for solar storms before they happen. Finally, government data collection and research on the Southern Atlantic Anomaly, a high-radiation region, has been crucial for designing satellite megaconstellations, including those for the Space Force and Golden Dome. With so much at stake in space, the demand for these services is only expected to increase.
Air and Missile Defense on Earth
On Earth, basic weather science has shaped the features of the United States’ air and missile defense architecture. Securing missile defense infrastructure on Guam, for example, has required reliable prediction of typhoons, as well as adaptations for interceptors and infrastructure to survive hot, humid climates.
Basic science on weather-radar interactions, such as attenuation caused by rain, is needed both for civilian weather measurement and to design military radars able to perform under all conditions. In maritime environments, radar systems can experience ducting, where atmospheric variations can distort target positions and signatures. Predicting these variations is important for preventing blind spots.
To monitor airspace in the Arctic, meanwhile, the United States and Canada are acquiring over-the-horizon radars, which reflect radar signals off the ionosphere to detect targets from thousands of miles away. NOAA- and NASA-driven improvements in ionospheric modeling and measurement have been important for increasing these radars’ precision, and introduce new methods for missile detection.
Even the space weather enterprise has a role to play. On May 23,1967, U.S. early-warning radars experienced signal losses from sunspot-emitted large radio bursts, causing the Air Force to set nuclear bombers on alert. Only the U.S. Air Force Air Weather Service’s ability to attribute the disruption to solar activity prevented further, accidental escalation.
These impacts are not limited to sensors. Core weapons priorities, from lasers to flight tests, continually benefit from civil research in subjects as esoteric as path radiance, turbulence, and plume phenomenology. Next-generation weapons, like hypersonic missiles and high-energy lasers, are highly affected by weather conditions. Without special mitigation, hypersonic weapons can be affected by collisions with raindrops or turbulence—a phenomenon defenders might seek to exploit. Directed-energy weapons—especially high-energy lasers—are highly sensitive to atmospheric conditions, as atmospheric turbulence can change the range of high-energy lasers by several orders of magnitude. Atmospheric modeling has thus become crucial for designing systems that perform.
