The following article is part of MEI’s special series, “The Houthis: Iran’s Most Distant Ally,” which analyzes the dynamics behind the Iranian-Houthi relationship, identifies the interests and challenges faced by both sides in maintaining their cooperation, charts their impact on regional security, and offers policy recommendations for how the US and other governments should respond.
On July 19, the Iran-backed Houthi militia in Yemen, which operates as a de facto authority in the north of the country, launched a deadly drone strike on Tel Aviv. Although Israeli authorities claimed there have been “hundreds” of previous Houthi attacks on Israel, this unprecedented event, which killed one and injured several other Israeli civilians, demonstrated significant advances in Houthi offensive capabilities since Oct. 7 as well as their determination to engage directly with Israel.
In a swift response, Israel conducted airstrikes on Hodeidah, a strategic Houthi stronghold and critical port city. These airstrikes targeted fuel depots, energy-related sites, and other facilities at the port, sparking a massive fire around the fuel tanks and further escalating the conflict.
The Houthi attack on Tel Aviv was almost certainly facilitated by Iranian technology and strategic support, perhaps presaging a notable shift in Tehran’s operational strategy, potentially drawing in additional regional actors and broadening the conflict. Israel, determined to defend its territory, has shown it is poised to respond with increased force to deter future threats.
Complicating matters further, US intelligence indicates the possibility of Russia supplying the Houthis with advanced anti-ship missiles. Such a move would not only intensify the proxy conflict between major powers but also significantly heighten the maritime threat posed by the Houthis in the Red Sea, including to US and coalition naval assets. Yemen thus risks becoming a battleground for broader geopolitical struggles, with dire consequences for its civilian population.
From a strategic perspective, the Houthis’ actions are not merely reckless but are designed to provoke a strong Israeli response, thereby internationalizing the conflict. They continue to see that their military operations elicit support from Yemen’s pro-Palestinian population as well as gain sympathy and backing from other regional actors and global powers disenchanted with Israel’s policies. Furthermore, the involvement of Iran and the potential for Russian military assistance indicates a broader geopolitical objective, leveraging the Houthis as a proxy to challenge US and Israeli influence in the region.
Houthi capabilities and implications for regional conflict
Since November 2023, the Iran-backed Houthis have conducted numerous drone and missile attacks against shipping in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, claiming solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza amid the Israel-Hamas war. The Houthis’ development of advanced unmanned aerial vehicles like the Samad-3 and Yafa, with substantial Iranian support, underscores their enhanced capabilities. The Yafa drone, in particular, which bypassed Israeli radar detection systems, signifies a significant leap in their operational reach and sophistication.
The Houthis’ tendency to operate freely and aggressively with little sense of consequence demonstrates the inherent challenges in dealing with non-state actors who operate with a zero-sum mentality — their end goal appears to be complete control of Yemen or total destruction. Israeli attacks alone are unlikely to deter the Houthis, as their growing capabilities suggest resilience and adaptability to military pressures. The Houthis are escalating the conflict, operating under the belief that they have little to lose: should they be attacked by Israel, they attain martyrdom; should they be spared, they gain the appearance of invulnerability. This calculated gamble reflects their understanding of the geopolitical landscape and the dynamics of international intervention.
Israel’s retaliation against Yemen could extend beyond targeting Houthi positions, potentially involving strikes against Iranian assets. Given the close ties between the Houthis and Iran, such actions could escalate the conflict, drawing in additional regional powers and possibly leading to direct confrontation between Israel and Iran.
Houthi maritime interdiction capabilities
The Houthi leader, Abdul-Malek al-Houthi, recently claimed the introduction of “submarine weapons” into the group’s arsenal, marking a potential advance in maritime capabilities as well. While details remain sparse, Abdul-Malek’s announcement suggests a strategic shift aimed at enhancing the Houthis’ ability to disrupt critical maritime routes in the Red Sea and beyond and underscores an evolving military sophistication. By leveraging advanced technologies, purportedly supported by Iran, the Houthis are not only asserting their regional presence but also complicating efforts by the United States and its allies to ensure maritime security.
The potential for
Houthi attacks: A dilemma for the US, its Gulf partners, and Israel
The Houthis are banking on the awareness that their operations, both against maritime targets and those aimed at Israel, are difficult to deter or defeat. They are forging alliances with like-minded actors, such as Iran and Russia, thereby gaining the recognition and power they crave, which they believe will translate into a domestic victory.
For the US and its allies, the Houthi strategy poses a dilemma. Since October 2023, the
To preserve its three-pillar policy, the US and its allies have been conducting operations to secure the critical waterways off Yemen’s coast but have avoided taking steps that would undermine the possibility of negotiating with the Houthis to end the civil conflict there. The effectiveness of these efforts, however, has been limited by the Houthis’ persistent attacks. Their evolving tactics and the new, more dangerous phase of Houthi aggressive moves threaten to upend the US strategy entirely. In response, US Central Command (CENTCOM)
Similarly, the critical question for Israel remains whether to risk a broader confrontation with Iran, which funds multiple proxies to destabilize the region, or to continue with the status quo, draining resources and undermining their reputation for strength as they navigate the treacherous waters of international conflict with a non-state actor.
Iran’s unknown unknowns
Since last October, Iran has enabled its proxies, particularly Hezbollah and the Houthis, to carry out military operations along Israel’s northern border with Lebanon and in the Red Sea and adjacent waters while insisting that it does not seek an expansion of the Gaza conflict. But Tehran is presumably uncertain of Israeli red lines — at what point does Jerusalem determine that its deterrent actions need to go beyond striking Hezbollah or Houthi targets and that it must attack the Iranian source of these acts of aggression? The Biden administration has worked aggressively to prevent expansion of the Gaza conflict, including both public and private messaging to Israel and Iran, but the US can be expected to back away from its calls for Israeli restraint should the evolution of the threats to Israeli security reach an intolerable level. At that point, the Israelis will likely make the fateful decision to again hit targets in Iran itself, more intensely than when it did so in April and with unpredictable consequences.
Strategic military responses and future scenarios
In light of the heightened threat posed by the Houthis, Israel, the US, and their allies could employ several potential military strategies. The possibility of Russia providing advanced missiles to the Houthis might prompt a recalibration of US and Israeli strategies, potentially involving preemptive strikes or more aggressive posturing to deter further escalation. This approach would involve increasing offensive operations targeting Houthi missile and drone capabilities, command centers, and supply lines to degrade the Houthis’ ability to launch attacks and disrupt their operational effectiveness.
Another strategy could involve enhancing defensive measures, such as deploying more advanced naval assets and missile-defense systems to protect commercial shipping routes. Additionally, increased intelligence sharing and coordination among regional allies could improve the detection and interception of Houthi attacks before they reach their targets.
A third possibility would be to respond to calls by the internationally recognized Yemeni government in Aden to help improve its military capabilities to enable it to challenge the Houthis on the ground. The government has specifically asked the international community to provide it with the means to wrest control of Hodeidah Port from the Houthis, which they were poised to do prior to the Stockholm Agreement of 2019. While plausible, this strategy is less likely, as building Yemeni military capabilities would be a long-term project, requiring years to reach fruition, and could also reignite the civil war, with serious implications for Yemen’s long-suffering civilian population.
International diplomatic efforts and peace initiatives
Beyond military options, addressing the escalating conflict and its implications necessitates a multifaceted and robust international diplomatic effort. Engaging with pro-democratic actors in Yemen is crucial. The US must redouble its efforts to dissuade Russia from arming the Houthis, involving third-party countries to mediate and exert diplomatic pressure on Moscow. Such diplomatic channels are vital in preventing further escalation and fostering a climate conducive to meaningful negotiations.
Moreover, leveraging international organizations like the United Nations to implement decisive resolutions and enforce sanctions against the Houthis and their backers could help stem the flow of advanced weaponry and reduce hostilities. A comprehensive “whole of government” approach, as advocated by CENTCOM, combining military, economic, and diplomatic measures, is essential to addressing the underlying causes of the conflict and ensuring long-term stability in the region.
Interfering with the Houthis, even when justified, has consistently proven to be complex and fraught with challenges. However, this should not invite passivity. Strategic, swift action is imperative to resolve the crisis efficiently, as prolonged regional confrontation only increases the costs and suffering and solicits untenable compromises. Some Yemeni advocates have suggested militarily targeting senior Houthi officials, which could force the Houthis to reconsider their actions. There is precedence in the case of the 2018 assassination of de facto Houthi President Saleh al-Samad, which led
Moreover, the recent developments involving Russian influence and interest in arming Iran’s proxies demand a revised strategic reassessment by the US and its allies. This will likely necessitate an increased military presence in the region. Yemen is at risk of becoming a tragic pawn in this broader geopolitical confrontation, with devastating implications for its civilian population. The US, its allies, and Israel currently lack a cohesive strategy to address the Houthi threat effectively. It is imperative for these countries to develop a clear, unified approach swiftly, to ensure a robust and coordinated response.
In this evolving landscape, it is crucial to understand that the implications of these actions will extend far beyond the immediate conflict, challenging the international community to navigate a path toward stability in an increasingly volatile region. The Houthis’ strategy of escalation has the potential to upset the fragile balance of power in the Middle East, and it underlines the ability of smaller actors to influence larger geopolitical outcomes through calculated risks and alliances.
As the situation unfolds, policymakers must recognize the multifaceted nature of this conflict. The Houthis’ maneuvering reveals an astute grasp of regional dynamics, exploiting fissures within the international community’s approach to Middle Eastern stability. The strategic calculus now involves not only military responses but also comprehensive diplomatic efforts to mitigate the broader ramifications of this escalation. It is essential that the pursuit of immediate security does not overshadow the long-term quest for regional peace and stability.
Fatima Abo Alasrar is a Non-Resident Scholar at the Middle East Institute and a Senior Policy Analyst at the Washington Center for Yemeni Studies.
Photo by MOHAMMED HUWAIS/AFP via Getty Images
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