Space Threat Assessment 2025

Welcome to the 2025 Space Threat Assessment by the Aerospace Security Project. This resource for policymakers and the public leverages open-source information to assess key developments in foreign counterspace weapons. Drawing on eight years of collected data and analyses, this report describes trends in the development, testing, and use of counterspace weapons and enables readers to develop a deeper understanding of threats to U.S. national security interests in space. Since the publication of the 2024 Space Threat Assessment, it may seem at first glance like there have been few headline-grabbing counterspace developments. But a closer look reveals that the past year has been anything but uneventful.

Rather than entirely new developments, the past year mostly witnessed a continuation of the worrisome trends discussed in prior reports, notably widespread jamming and spoofing of GPS signals in and around conflict zones, including near and in Russia and throughout the Middle East. Chinese and Russian satellites in both low Earth orbit and geostationary Earth orbit continue to display more and more advanced maneuvering capabilities, demonstrating operator proficiency and tactics, techniques, and procedures that can be used for space warfighting and alarming U.S. and allied officials. No information publicly surfaced revealing how close Russia might be to launching a nuclear anti-satellite capability, though the United States and its international partners remain concerned that Russia could decide to deploy such a weapon.

This report is made possible by general support to CSIS. No direct sponsorship contributed to this report.