“Driving forces of change” are significant, presently observable large-scale trends and issues expected to shape the future. These forces can affect, and are rooted in, various aspects of society, technology, economy, environment, and politics (STEEP). For instance, the rise of China as a multidimensional power is a driving force with wide-reaching implications and deep impact across the board. To identify drivers of change, we should develop a quality horizon-scanning practice that involves systematically recognizing and tracking signals of change, trends, disruptions, and emerging issues by consistently examining a wide range of information sources. Strategic foresight is concerned with understanding what some of the most important such forces are, determining why and how they emerge, and anticipating their potential significance.
Recently, I outlined several global driving forces of change following the horizon-scanning STEEP framework categories. These forces of change will have a tangible impact throughout the world, including the Middle East and North Africa. An evaluation of the scope and nature of the impact of each of them should be of great interest to policymakers and leaders in the region.
Silver Tsunami
The term “Silver Tsunami” refers to the significant increase in the proportion of elderly individuals within a population, often caused by declining birth rates and increasing life expectancy. This demographic shift, also known as population aging, poses challenges for healthcare systems, pension schemes, and labor markets, as a larger elderly population requires more medical care and financial support while contributing less to the workforce. Based on World Health Organization estimates, the number of older individuals globally is expected to surpass 2 billion by 2050.
In terms of demographic pressures, Iran is already locked into an alarm mode because of a rapidly aging population. The economic implications and fiscal aspects of this development have been described as a time bomb waiting to explode. Population size is also seen as a significant element of national power and security both for the mobilization of soldiers and as a possible deterrence strategy — as a “human shield” or “cannon fodder” in a potential armed conflict with the United States and its allies. The current war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza provides only a glimpse of the possible use of civilian casualties in the next conflict.
Many other countries in the Middle East, notably Saudi Arabia and Egypt, will face the opposite of the Silver Tsunami demographic challenge, namely a growing cohort of young, educated, but under- or unemployed citizens. The solution that is often pursued is to fund a startup ecosystem and promote deep tech and technological entrepreneurship. This problem will become even more urgent in a future characterized by a green economy and clean energy, as continuing to depend on selling fossil fuels will be a risky option for oil-exporting countries in the Middle East.
Converging technologies
Technological convergence refers to the integration of nanotechnology, biotechnology, information technology, and cognitive science (NBIC), artificial intelligence (AI), and quantum computing. By combining advances in these fields, converging technologies have the potential to revolutionize various sectors, leading to innovations such as increased longevity, advanced computing systems, and enhanced cognitive functions. The synergy of NBIC technologies is expected to foster new opportunities for scientific breakthroughs, economic growth, and the overall improvement of human well-being.
Add to this the dramatic rapid advancements in AI, which are transforming industries by enhancing efficiency, productivity, and innovation and which will further fuel NBIC convergence. The goal of research in the field of artificial general intelligence (AGI) is to create hypothetical future AI systems that can perform any intellectual task a human can do. The regulation of advanced AI is crucial to ensure its safe and ethical use, balancing innovation with public protection. Effective regulation would address data privacy, security, transparency, and accountability, requiring collaboration between policymakers and industry experts to navigate the complexities of emerging technologies.
Further still, quantum computing leverages the principles of quantum mechanics to perform computations far beyond the capabilities of classical computers. This technology has the potential to revolutionize fields such as cryptography, materials science, and complex problem-solving by enabling unprecedented processing power and speed. Q-Day refers to the hypothetical future date when quantum computers become powerful enough to break current cryptographic systems. This expected milestone poses significant security challenges, necessitating the development of quantum-resistant encryption methods to protect sensitive data and maintain cybersecurity.
The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has more than $900 billion in assets in its Public Investment Fund (PIF). To finance high-tech developments in pursuit of its goal of joining global leaders in the field, such as the United States, China, and Israel, and in competition with its regional rivals, in particular the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia has announced its intention to create a $40 billion fund to invest in AI. Additionally, the kingdom has invested $20 billion in longevity biotechnology research through the Hevolution Foundation.
Transcending planetary limitations
The intersection of technological advances and environmental forces is illustrated by the need for massive-scale geoengineering interventions to provide effective ways to tackle the extreme heat and water shortages in the Middle East.
Two specific technology forces are becoming increasingly important in the effort to transcend the limitations of the planet: 1) geoengineering and 2) space programs. Geoengineering involves large-scale interventions in the Earth’s climate system to combat climate change, including techniques such as carbon sequestration, solar radiation management, and cloud seeding. Middle Eastern countries, in particular Oman with its carbon sequestration project in Wadi Lawayni, are considering experimenting with geoengineering to address the disproportionately harsh effects of climate change they are experiencing. The second global driving force is the commercialization of outer space. This concerns revolutionizing the space industry through private investment and innovation, with space travel and exploration becoming more accessible and affordable, enabling new opportunities for scientific research, satellite technology, and even space tourism.
As the commercial space sector continues to grow, it is expected to have a profound impact on our daily lives, from improving communication and navigation to providing new resources and inspiring future generations. According to the Space Foundation, more than half of the $415 billion global space economy came from commercial space products and services in 2019. The Middle East, inspired by the Islamic Golden Age, is intent on developing a future focused on space programs. Several countries, such as Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE, in pursuit of the common political goal of enhancing national identity, branding, and pride, have active space programs and are investing in either domestically managed development projects or are seeking partnerships with the more established world space powers.
Scramble 2.0 for Africa and Scramble 1.0 for the North Pole
Scramble 2.0 for Africa marks a new chapter in the continent’s history, drawing parallels with the colonial-era “Scramble for Africa” (Scramble 1.0). Just as European powers vied for resources, territory, and influence in the 19th century, today’s global players are competing for access to Africa’s markets, resources, and strategic opportunities. This modern-day “scramble” has the potential to transform the region’s economic landscape, unlocking growth and development, leading to profound geopolitical shifts, and positioning Africa as a major player in the global economy.
Scramble 1.0 for the North Pole echoes the colonial-era competition for Africa, as countries like Russia, China, and the US vie for influence in the Arctic region. Just as European powers carved up Africa in the 19th century, modern powers are now staking claims to the North Pole’s natural resources, shipping routes, and strategic locations, as melting ice exposes new opportunities. This new scramble also raises geopolitical tensions in a fragile and rapidly changing region.
The dynamics and impact of change related to the combination of Scramble 1.0 for the North Pole and Scramble 2.0 for Africa will be worthwhile to watch and monitor.
The combinations of four key factors related to these two driving forces of change could contribute to sustained disengagement of the US from the Middle East, a consistent bipartisan foreign policy goal for almost a decade: 1) the avoidance of imperial overreach, 2) the growing energy independence and transformation of the US into a net exporter, 3) the gradual pivot to China and the Indo-Pacific region, and 4) the rising tensions and conflicts over territories and natural resources of the North Pole, which is increasingly more accessible to extraction due to climate change impacts.
With respect to the new scramble for Africa, it is already evident that the great powers, such as the US, Russia, and China, are in a new phase of strategic competition and even direct and proxy conflict in different regions of the continent, including more recently in Libya, Niger, and Sudan. Several Middle Eastern powers, such as Iran, Turkey, and the UAE, are also pursuing their national interests in Africa more openly and assertively.
Rise of authoritarianism
The rise of authoritarianism globally is evidenced by the increasing prominence of political systems characterized by centralized power, limited political freedoms, and suppression of dissent. Authoritarian regimes often prioritize stability and control, sometimes at the expense of civil liberties, political pluralism, and rule of law. This trend poses challenges to global democracy and human rights, prompting debates about the balance between security and individual freedoms in governance.
Perhaps the only aspect of the identified STEEP driving forces that has not experienced significant change in the MENA region is the rise of authoritarianism. Most of the region is already ruled by lifelong heads of state whose governments are characterized by varying degrees of authoritarianism, from absolute monarchies and theocracies to limited forms of democracies.
US diplomatic and military interventions in the Middle East intended to impact the forms, substance, and structures of governance have been confined to a difficult choice among the good, the bad, and the ugly, with three strategic options: 1) supporting secular and liberal allies, 2) negotiating with, or even appeasing, adversarial, fundamentalist Islamic parties, and 3) resisting the rise of socialists, extreme anti-American leftists, and even dormant anti-capitalist Marxist groups.
With the exception of countries controlled largely by more secular, liberal elements and/or monarchical and military governments, like in Saudi Arabia and Egypt, the US often has a hard but obvious choice between the extreme left, anti-imperialist parties and their Islamist opponents — like in Turkey, Iran, and Afghanistan. The “good” are the more socially liberal, more secular monarchist allies, even though less politically liberal; the “bad” are Islamists claiming to be the only caliphate of the Muslim world; and the “ugly” remain the socialists, Marxists, and communists. Chinese diplomatic, economic, and military influence and assertive moves will only further reinforce and consolidate the prevailing authoritarianism.
Coda
Following the usual mantra of strategic foresight, which invites us to focus on the long term, big picture, and radical change, we should note that stereotypical images of the future of the Middle East held by outside observers need to be revisited. Several key driving forces of change have been identified that show there is a tremendous potential for transformation, some of them with predetermined impacts and others open to uncertain possibilities and scenarios. As MENA countries become more autonomous and empowered domestically, the leaders in the region should consider developing more synergetic relations with each other and prepare national long-term plans that provide a balanced and integrated approach to social, technological, environmental, economic, and political development and progress.
Victor V. Motti is a distinguished self-taught Foresight Scholar and Leading Executive in Federal Training Solutions at DMS Foresight Academy. He authored the book Alternative Planetary Futures, and he currently serves as the Executive Director of the World Futures Studies Federation (WFSF) as well as the Managing Editor at the European Journal of Futures Research (EJFR).
Photographer: Christopher Pike/Bloomberg via Getty Images
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