Editor’s Note: While the Stimson Center rarely publishes anonymous work, the author of this commentary is a Tehran-based analyst who has requested anonymity out of legitimate concern for their personal safety. The writer is known to appropriate staff, has a track record of reliable analysis, and is in a position to provide an otherwise unavailable perspective.
By Barbara Slavin, Distinguished Fellow, Middle East Perspectives
The winter of 2024 confronted Iranians with a severe energy crisis that disrupted daily life and crippled industrial operations. The spring and summer months pose another and more existential threat: severe water scarcity that has reached critical levels and threatens the nation’s stability.
From the bald mountains above Tehran that used to be capped year-round with snow to near-empty reservoirs outside the capital and the parched fields of Khuzestan in the south, Iranians are grappling with a confluence of natural and man-made factors that have exacerbated the shortages.
The alarm bells have been ringing for years, and the data is increasingly grim. Water reserves in Tehran’s five main reservoirs have plummeted to 13 percent of their capacity. The Lar dam, a vital source for the capital, is nearly empty, only 1 percent full. Three other dams hold between 6 percent and 12 percent of their capacity.
This dramatic depletion reflects a lack of rainfall as well as mismanaged use. Nineteen provinces are experiencing significant drought, with Hormozgan, Iran’s southernmost province, reporting a staggering 77 percent decrease in average rainfall, followed by Sistan and Baluchestan in the southeast with a 72 percent drop.
Key water sources such as the Shamil and Nian dams in the Persian Gulf port of Bandar Abbas, Esteghlal dam near the city of Minab in Hormozgan province, and the Zayandehrood river, the largest in the central Iranian plateau, are also facing drastically reduced reserves.
The Deputy Minister of Energy, Mohammad Javanbakht, has described the current water year as one of the most challenging in Iran’s history, reporting a 45 percent decrease in average rainfall. To mitigate the crisis, he has called for a 20 percent reduction in water consumption, but it is difficult to see how this can be enforced.
The water crisis in Iran is not solely attributable to natural causes. It is a complex issue driven by climate change, mismanagement of water resources, population growth and urbanization, as well as over-extraction of groundwater.
Global warming has significantly impacted rainfall patterns, leading to prolonged droughts and decreased precipitation. Iran, like many other arid and semi-arid countries, is also experiencing increasingly erratic weather patterns. Increased evaporation rates, three times the global average, exacerbate the shortages.
Inefficient agricultural practices, especially the failure to use modern irrigation methods, contribute significantly to waste. While only 12 percent of Iran’s land is under cultivation, it accounts for about 93 percent of Iran’s water consumption. This is despite the fact that agriculture represents only 10 percent of the country’s gross domestic product, and only 17 percent of the country’s workforce is employed in this sector.
Inadequate investment in water infrastructure, including failure to replace aging and leaking pipelines, also results in substantial water loss.
The concentration of population in the central plateau, home to major cities such as Tehran, Isfahan, and Mashhad, puts immense strain on limited water resources. Rapid urbanization and industrial development have increased demand. An over-reliance on groundwater has led to a dramatic decline in water tables and increased land subsidence, posing serious threats to infrastructure and agriculture alike.
Water scarcity is having a profound impact on important sectors of Iranian society. Reduced crop yields and livestock losses threaten food security and the livelihoods of farmers. So do agricultural limits, such as a ban on double cropping.
Water-intensive industries also face production disruptions and economic losses. Energy production is directly tied to water supply since dams also produce electricity. Shortages in water translate to shortages in energy and can exacerbate social tensions, leading to conflicts over scarce resources and displacement.
This past winter, Iran experienced widespread power outages that disrupted essential services, hampered businesses and caused significant public frustration.
Authorities were forced to implement drastic measures, including closing schools and government offices and reducing the workweek. Unusually cold temperatures led to a surge in natural gas consumption for heating and a diversion of gas from power plants, resulting in more electricity shortages.
Years of underinvestment and inadequate maintenance are also at the root of Iran’s energy problems. Aging power plants and transmission lines are prone to breakdowns, exacerbating supply shortages.
U.S.-led sanctions have made it more difficult for Iran to invest in modernizing its energy and water infrastructure. Sanctions have also limited the development of new gas fields. Historically, heavily subsidized energy prices have encouraged inefficient consumption and contributed to excessive demand, placing further strain on the network.
Energy-intensive industries, such as steel and petrochemicals, have been forced to curtail production, leading to losses in the steel production sector alone of more than $8.5 billion this year.
Combined with a severe depreciation of the Iranian currency and high inflation, the power outages spurred public frustration and anger.
In 2023, Iran faced a power shortage of 13,000 megawatts. This number reached 18,000 megawatts in 2024, and is predicted to increase to 25,000 megawatts in 2025.
The dual water and energy crises demand urgent, comprehensive action.
Addressing water challenges necessitates sustainable management, conservation, diversified sources such as desalination, and climate change mitigation. Other crucial steps include more water-efficient agriculture, infrastructure upgrades, strict consumption regulations, and public awareness campaigns.
Similarly, resolving energy issues requires investment in infrastructure and renewables, particularly solar power. Promoting energy-efficient technologies and reducing subsidies would reduce demand. Both sectors demand sustained effort from the government, businesses, and individuals, with a focus on long-term planning and decisive action to secure Iran’s future. Yet there is little indication that this is happening.
Lifting sanctions is also essential for economic recovery and investment. However, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei seems disinclined to negotiate with the Trump administration, which Khamenei blames for withdrawing from a prior agreement during Trump’s first term. A failure to reach a negotiated settlement regarding Iran’s nuclear program could lead to U.S. and Israeli military strikes that would further damage Iran’s infrastructure and deepen its twin economic crises.
Editor’s Note: While the Stimson Center rarely publishes anonymous work, the author of this commentary is a Tehran-based analyst who has requested anonymity out of legitimate concern for their personal safety. The writer is known to appropriate staff, has a track record of reliable analysis, and is in a position to provide an otherwise unavailable perspective.
By Barbara Slavin, Distinguished Fellow, Middle East Perspectives
The winter of 2024 confronted Iranians with a severe energy crisis that disrupted daily life and crippled industrial operations. The spring and summer months pose another and more existential threat: severe water scarcity that has reached critical levels and threatens the nation’s stability.
From the bald mountains above Tehran that used to be capped year-round with snow to near-empty reservoirs outside the capital and the parched fields of Khuzestan in the south, Iranians are grappling with a confluence of natural and man-made factors that have exacerbated the shortages.
The alarm bells have been ringing for years, and the data is increasingly grim. Water reserves in Tehran’s five main reservoirs have plummeted to 13 percent of their capacity. The Lar dam, a vital source for the capital, is nearly empty, only 1 percent full. Three other dams hold between 6 percent and 12 percent of their capacity.
This dramatic depletion reflects a lack of rainfall as well as mismanaged use. Nineteen provinces are experiencing significant drought, with Hormozgan, Iran’s southernmost province, reporting a staggering 77 percent decrease in average rainfall, followed by Sistan and Baluchestan in the southeast with a 72 percent drop.
Key water sources such as the Shamil and Nian dams in the Persian Gulf port of Bandar Abbas, Esteghlal dam near the city of Minab in Hormozgan province, and the Zayandehrood river, the largest in the central Iranian plateau, are also facing drastically reduced reserves.
The Deputy Minister of Energy, Mohammad Javanbakht, has described the current water year as one of the most challenging in Iran’s history, reporting a 45 percent decrease in average rainfall. To mitigate the crisis, he has called for a 20 percent reduction in water consumption, but it is difficult to see how this can be enforced.
The water crisis in Iran is not solely attributable to natural causes. It is a complex issue driven by climate change, mismanagement of water resources, population growth and urbanization, as well as over-extraction of groundwater.
Global warming has significantly impacted rainfall patterns, leading to prolonged droughts and decreased precipitation. Iran, like many other arid and semi-arid countries, is also experiencing increasingly erratic weather patterns. Increased evaporation rates, three times the global average, exacerbate the shortages.
Inefficient agricultural practices, especially the failure to use modern irrigation methods, contribute significantly to waste. While only 12 percent of Iran’s land is under cultivation, it accounts for about 93 percent of Iran’s water consumption. This is despite the fact that agriculture represents only 10 percent of the country’s gross domestic product, and only 17 percent of the country’s workforce is employed in this sector.
Inadequate investment in water infrastructure, including failure to replace aging and leaking pipelines, also results in substantial water loss.
The concentration of population in the central plateau, home to major cities such as Tehran, Isfahan, and Mashhad, puts immense strain on limited water resources. Rapid urbanization and industrial development have increased demand. An over-reliance on groundwater has led to a dramatic decline in water tables and increased land subsidence, posing serious threats to infrastructure and agriculture alike.
Water scarcity is having a profound impact on important sectors of Iranian society. Reduced crop yields and livestock losses threaten food security and the livelihoods of farmers. So do agricultural limits, such as a ban on double cropping.
Water-intensive industries also face production disruptions and economic losses. Energy production is directly tied to water supply since dams also produce electricity. Shortages in water translate to shortages in energy and can exacerbate social tensions, leading to conflicts over scarce resources and displacement.
This past winter, Iran experienced widespread power outages that disrupted essential services, hampered businesses and caused significant public frustration.
Authorities were forced to implement drastic measures, including closing schools and government offices and reducing the workweek. Unusually cold temperatures led to a surge in natural gas consumption for heating and a diversion of gas from power plants, resulting in more electricity shortages.
Years of underinvestment and inadequate maintenance are also at the root of Iran’s energy problems. Aging power plants and transmission lines are prone to breakdowns, exacerbating supply shortages.
U.S.-led sanctions have made it more difficult for Iran to invest in modernizing its energy and water infrastructure. Sanctions have also limited the development of new gas fields. Historically, heavily subsidized energy prices have encouraged inefficient consumption and contributed to excessive demand, placing further strain on the network.
Energy-intensive industries, such as steel and petrochemicals, have been forced to curtail production, leading to losses in the steel production sector alone of more than $8.5 billion this year.
Combined with a severe depreciation of the Iranian currency and high inflation, the power outages spurred public frustration and anger.
In 2023, Iran faced a power shortage of 13,000 megawatts. This number reached 18,000 megawatts in 2024, and is predicted to increase to 25,000 megawatts in 2025.
The dual water and energy crises demand urgent, comprehensive action.
Addressing water challenges necessitates sustainable management, conservation, diversified sources such as desalination, and climate change mitigation. Other crucial steps include more water-efficient agriculture, infrastructure upgrades, strict consumption regulations, and public awareness campaigns.
Similarly, resolving energy issues requires investment in infrastructure and renewables, particularly solar power. Promoting energy-efficient technologies and reducing subsidies would reduce demand. Both sectors demand sustained effort from the government, businesses, and individuals, with a focus on long-term planning and decisive action to secure Iran’s future. Yet there is little indication that this is happening.
Lifting sanctions is also essential for economic recovery and investment. However, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei seems disinclined to negotiate with the Trump administration, which Khamenei blames for withdrawing from a prior agreement during Trump’s first term. A failure to reach a negotiated settlement regarding Iran’s nuclear program could lead to U.S. and Israeli military strikes that would further damage Iran’s infrastructure and deepen its twin economic crises.
