Global Terrorism Threat Assessment 2025

Terrorism remains a threat to U.S. citizens, assets, and interests despite the national security community’s decreasing focus on counterterrorism. In 2025, domestic terrorism represents a greater threat to the United States than do international terrorist organizations. Most domestic terrorist attacks in the United States are carried out by lone actors or small groups who believe in a wide range of ideologies, such as white supremacy, partisan extremism, and Salafi-jihadism. In the Middle East, the Al Qaeda core, Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, and the Islamic State remain committed to conducting attacks against the U.S. homeland as well as U.S. interests, although all three are weaker than they were during their heydays. Israel has degraded Hezbollah’s and Hamas’s capabilities, while the Houthis have become a more active regional threat. Africa remains the most active theater for Salafi-jihadist organizations, but the continent’s groups are mostly tertiary priorities for the United States, with the exception of East Africa’s Al Shabaab.

This report consists of three regional assessments of the threat from terrorist groups and movements in the United States, the Middle East (including Afghanistan), and Africa. The purpose of this assessment is to help U.S. national security policymakers, intelligence and law enforcement professionals, and military decisionmakers prioritize among different terrorist threats.

This report was made possible by general support to CSIS. No direct sponsorship contributed to this report.