As I write this early on a Friday morning, the bombs, missiles, and drones are continuing to fly between Israel and Iran. Diplomacy is at threat, and an already bloodied Middle East is on edge.
It is far too soon to predict the outcome of Israel’s massive assault on a long-time enemy — as well as the spillover effects on Israel’s chief ally, the U.S. Already, Iran has lost its top military leadership and its main facility for enriching uranium. Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu has praised Israeli military acumen and revealed that the attack plans were months in the making. He has called the assault a legitimate act of anticipatory self-defense against a hostile country with a rapidly increasing stockpile of highly enriched uranium. But Israeli triumphalism may be premature. Iran can and likely will reconstitute its program and might be incentivized to covertly develop nuclear weapons. And the assault could unify Iranians around what had otherwise been an unpopular regime.
A long-time writer for the Stimson Center in Tehran, who must go unnamed for reasons of personal security, wrote to me this morning:
“What is important right now is that the schisms within Iranian politics have disappeared already. It only took a few hours for people to unite behind the regime. All domestic factions, dissidents, oppositions of all trends inside Iran, critics, etc. have all united. Their messages of unity are already spreading like wildfire. Message is let’s put differences aside and fight for Iran instead. After only 3 hours, the state TV has removed the black sign of mourning and has replaced it with the Iranian flag. And [Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali] Khamenei has appointed Admiral Sayyari, a person that most Iranians love and respect, as the new chief of the joint command, the highest military position in Iran after Khamenei. He replaces [Mohammad] Bagheri [the head of the armed forces, who was killed].”
President Donald Trump, who in his first term withdrew from a nuclear agreement that significantly constrained Iran’s nuclear program, posted on social media an ultimatum to Iran to make a new deal now before “nothing is left.” However, Iran has already said that it would not attend a sixth round of talks with the U.S., scheduled for Sunday in Oman.
U.S. insistence that Iran give up all enrichment of uranium under a new nuclear agreement has proven to be a dealbreaker. Iran has historically refused to do this, and it seems increasingly unlikely that it will capitulate now.
Over its long history, Iran has repeatedly been attacked and invaded. A desire for independence from the great powers – at the time the U.S. and the Soviet Union – was a major motivator for the 1979 revolution. Iraq’s invasion of Iran the following year allowed the Islamic leadership of the country to stifle dissent and bolster its legitimacy – the opposite of what Iraq and its many supporters in the region and internationally had intended.
In response to such threats, Iran developed a strategy of so-called forward defense, supporting partner militias like Hezbollah in Lebanon following Israel’s 1982 invasion of that country. It expanded its network into Iraq after the U.S. toppled Saddam Hussein in 2003. But the strategy unraveled after Hamas, another group backed by Tehran, staged a brutal surprise attack on Israel, murdering 1200 people and taking more than 200 hostages. Israel’s response has now decimated Hamas and Hezbollah and killed more than 55,000 people, most of them civilians, with Gaza’s remaining residents struggling to find food. An earlier but much more limited spate of direct attacks between Israel and Iran destroyed much of Iran’s air defense capability, and today’s assault once again confirms Israel’s deep penetration of Iran’s security structure.
But for Iran’s leadership to accede to U.S. and Israel’s demands would be politically suicidal. Instead, expect the regime to focus on civilian casualties from the Israeli attacks and to mobilize remaining elements of the “Axis of Resistance” to respond, if not immediately, then when Iranian adversaries are no longer on high alert. If past is precedent, civilians are likely to be targeted, including Americans and non-Israeli Jews, if not by Iran then by individuals radicalized by Israeli attacks and U.S. acquiescence.
President Trump’s ambitions to be a “peacemaker” continue to allude him, with ceasefire attempts crumbling on Gaza, Ukraine and now Iran. U.S. allies in the Middle East are also on edge, fearing retaliation at worst and a disruption of ambitious plans for economic development at best.
As long as this analyst has been following the region, the axiom remains: It can always get worse. As we look on, the world remains in search of the great statesmen of the past who could pull opportunity from calamity – as well as those who can find a fragile peace in times of turmoil.
As I write this early on a Friday morning, the bombs, missiles, and drones are continuing to fly between Israel and Iran. Diplomacy is at threat, and an already bloodied Middle East is on edge.
It is far too soon to predict the outcome of Israel’s massive assault on a long-time enemy — as well as the spillover effects on Israel’s chief ally, the U.S. Already, Iran has lost its top military leadership and its main facility for enriching uranium. Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu has praised Israeli military acumen and revealed that the attack plans were months in the making. He has called the assault a legitimate act of anticipatory self-defense against a hostile country with a rapidly increasing stockpile of highly enriched uranium. But Israeli triumphalism may be premature. Iran can and likely will reconstitute its program and might be incentivized to covertly develop nuclear weapons. And the assault could unify Iranians around what had otherwise been an unpopular regime.
A long-time writer for the Stimson Center in Tehran, who must go unnamed for reasons of personal security, wrote to me this morning:
“What is important right now is that the schisms within Iranian politics have disappeared already. It only took a few hours for people to unite behind the regime. All domestic factions, dissidents, oppositions of all trends inside Iran, critics, etc. have all united. Their messages of unity are already spreading like wildfire. Message is let’s put differences aside and fight for Iran instead. After only 3 hours, the state TV has removed the black sign of mourning and has replaced it with the Iranian flag. And [Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali] Khamenei has appointed Admiral Sayyari, a person that most Iranians love and respect, as the new chief of the joint command, the highest military position in Iran after Khamenei. He replaces [Mohammad] Bagheri [the head of the armed forces, who was killed].”
President Donald Trump, who in his first term withdrew from a nuclear agreement that significantly constrained Iran’s nuclear program, posted on social media an ultimatum to Iran to make a new deal now before “nothing is left.” However, Iran has already said that it would not attend a sixth round of talks with the U.S., scheduled for Sunday in Oman.
U.S. insistence that Iran give up all enrichment of uranium under a new nuclear agreement has proven to be a dealbreaker. Iran has historically refused to do this, and it seems increasingly unlikely that it will capitulate now.
Over its long history, Iran has repeatedly been attacked and invaded. A desire for independence from the great powers – at the time the U.S. and the Soviet Union – was a major motivator for the 1979 revolution. Iraq’s invasion of Iran the following year allowed the Islamic leadership of the country to stifle dissent and bolster its legitimacy – the opposite of what Iraq and its many supporters in the region and internationally had intended.
In response to such threats, Iran developed a strategy of so-called forward defense, supporting partner militias like Hezbollah in Lebanon following Israel’s 1982 invasion of that country. It expanded its network into Iraq after the U.S. toppled Saddam Hussein in 2003. But the strategy unraveled after Hamas, another group backed by Tehran, staged a brutal surprise attack on Israel, murdering 1200 people and taking more than 200 hostages. Israel’s response has now decimated Hamas and Hezbollah and killed more than 55,000 people, most of them civilians, with Gaza’s remaining residents struggling to find food. An earlier but much more limited spate of direct attacks between Israel and Iran destroyed much of Iran’s air defense capability, and today’s assault once again confirms Israel’s deep penetration of Iran’s security structure.
But for Iran’s leadership to accede to U.S. and Israel’s demands would be politically suicidal. Instead, expect the regime to focus on civilian casualties from the Israeli attacks and to mobilize remaining elements of the “Axis of Resistance” to respond, if not immediately, then when Iranian adversaries are no longer on high alert. If past is precedent, civilians are likely to be targeted, including Americans and non-Israeli Jews, if not by Iran then by individuals radicalized by Israeli attacks and U.S. acquiescence.
President Trump’s ambitions to be a “peacemaker” continue to allude him, with ceasefire attempts crumbling on Gaza, Ukraine and now Iran. U.S. allies in the Middle East are also on edge, fearing retaliation at worst and a disruption of ambitious plans for economic development at best.
As long as this analyst has been following the region, the axiom remains: It can always get worse. As we look on, the world remains in search of the great statesmen of the past who could pull opportunity from calamity – as well as those who can find a fragile peace in times of turmoil.
