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This commentary was originally created for publication with the Air War College.
Surprising a military opponent—whether through deception, misdirection, or unexpected maneuvers—has often yielded significant strategic advantages. However, in a globalized world shaped by advanced technology, satellite surveillance, instant communication, and widespread information access, achieving military surprise has become increasingly complex. This analysis explores the continued relevance and growing challenges of military surprise in light of international transparency, technological advancement, and the evolving nature of warfare.
In the past, military surprise has stemmed from some fundamental element of the unexpected—primarily through deceiving the adversary about the timing, location, or scale of an attack. Classic instances of surprise military attacks are the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941 or the Israeli attack during the Six-Day War in 1967. Both operations succeeded due to a combination of deception, misjudgment of the enemy’s preparedness, and the unpredictability of military movements.
But in the twenty-first century, the climate of war and global intelligence has shifted radically. Part of the primary cause of the erosion of the classical concept of surprise is the pervasive omnipresence of information exchange. Satellite reconnaissance, social networking, drones, and worldwide communications systems have shattered the opacity of military operations. This openness—wherein data on troop deployments, militarization, and geopolitical shifts is more explicit—has made it increasingly difficult for military powers to conceal their purpose or intention.
New technologies have completely altered the balance of military surprise. Satellite imagery and reconnaissance drones facilitate real-time observation of military assets across the globe. Nations can trace the movement of hostile forces or observe as enemy infrastructure is established with uncanny precision. The existence of global communication platforms means that once-secret information can leak out through whistleblowers, hackers, or even the sheer volume of online chatter that gives away intentions. This has led to what can be described as the “death of secrecy” in military affairs.
Furthermore, cyber operations are a new form of intelligence collection and warfare. Governments and militaries now employ cyber capabilities to monitor prospective rivals and intercept their communications networks. While these methods can bestow an edge to keeping tabs on an adversary, they also increase the likelihood that the adversary themselves might gain access to intelligence related to military operations before execution. This severely diminishes the potential for surprise.
Increased social media site accessibility and open-source intelligence availability have further augmented the difficulty of achieving surprise. Social media platforms allow civilians to upload pictures and videos of troop deployments or speculations on potential activity. This can result in nearly instantaneous global awareness of sensitive operations, which could then prompt an accelerated response by adversaries. Even covert military operations must deal with the challenge of maintaining operational security in an environment where information is disseminated at light speed and to an international marketplace.
Even in modern high-tech warfare, technological advancements have not eliminated the importance of surprise. Today, surprise is often achieved through rapid information warfare, misinformation campaigns, or cyberattacks that mislead enemies. While its methods have evolved to reflect contemporary technological realities, surprise remains central to military strategy.
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Surprise can be a force multiplier for weaker nations or substate actors against more technologically capable adversaries. Exploiting surprise to defeat superior numbers and strength remains one of the top strategies for guerrilla and irregular forces.
Surprise in classical warfare tilts the balance of power by upsetting the enemy’s plan, causing confusion, and forcing rapid and uncoordinated action. Even in a more open age, low-intensity surprise attacks—such as ambushes, surprise raids, or cyberattacks—can have the ability to surprise enemies and create important windows of opportunity.
The surprise element can be understood better by its capacity to destabilize an adversary’s decision process. By using surprise in an attack, the attacker is on the defensive. Their forces could be scattered or diverted, thus providing an advantage in the initial stage before the attacker’s recovery to mount a countervailing move. Asymmetric warfare, as in insurgent group conflicts with conventional state military powers, mostly relies heavily upon the force of surprise to provoke psychological and operational disequilibrium.
While the technological landscape of modern warfare may have made military surprise more difficult to achieve, it has also established new strategies and tactics attempting to regain the initiative. The armed forces now employ advanced counterintelligence, electronic warfare, and deception operations to mislead adversaries and preserve the element of surprise.
For example, military forces can use decoys, deceptions through radio signals, and disinformation to disorient the enemy. Strategic ambiguity is also practiced by certain nations, where they make a deliberate attempt to send conflicting or unclear signals regarding their intent so that the enemy is left uncertain about their future actions.
Moreover, research into AI and machine learning is being conducted to anticipate the enemy’s moves and to design countermeasures to surprise attacks. These technologies would allow military strategists to anticipate threats before they materialize, reducing the possibility of an adversary successfully carrying out a surprise operation.
In an open world where movements can be tracked and data is readily accessible, achieving military surprise has become an uphill battle. As the art of warfare evolves in a new era of transparency, surprise may still find a niche in innovative and unconventional methods. To remain effective, military troops must adapt, demonstrating that while surprise is harder to achieve, it is far from obsolete.
Matthew Slusher is a military fellow with the Defense and Security Department at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C.
